The year 2024 is a critical year for realizing the objectives and tasks of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan.
The newly released first quarterly report of China's economy shows that in the first quarter, the economic operation continues to rebound to a good trend, the growth rate of the main economic indicators is rising steadily, and the economic structural adjustment is progressing steadily, but at the same time there are still some problems and challenges.
How do you see the economic situation in the first quarter? What are the prospects for future growth? Xinhua News Agency on the 25th launched a new issue of "China's economic roundtable" large-scale all-media interview program, inviting Li Hui, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission's National Economy Comprehensive Department, Wang Guanhua, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics National Economy Comprehensive Statistics Department and spokesman, Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges (CIEE), and You Hongtao, chairman of Chongqing Hwasen Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. to talk about China's economic trends.
Steady start to the first quarter of the economy is a good start
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that China's gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of this year amounted to 2,962.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.31 TP3T at constant prices, and a year-on-year increase of 1.61 TP3T from the fourth quarter of the previous year.
"The economic growth rate in the first quarter rose steadily, both year-on-year and year-on-year, compared with the previous quarter." Li Hui said that from a macro point of view, the whole economic operation has continued the trend of picking up and improving.
The national urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, a year-on-year decline of 0.3 percentage points; the national consumer price index (CPI) was unchanged from the same period a year earlier, and the core CPI, which deducts food and energy prices, rose by 0.7% year-on-year; fixed-asset investment rose by 4.5% year-on-year, a growth rate of 1.5 percentage points higher than that of the whole of the previous year ...... a series of data to confirm the current economic stabilization momentum.
"China's economy got off to a good start in the first quarter of this year, and this good start is reflected both in the fact that the macroeconomic fundamentals have remained stable, and even more so in the fact that China's economy has strengthened its muscles and bones and enhanced its physique through transformation and upgrading." Analyzing the current economic operation situation, Wang Guanhua commented.
In Zhang Yansheng's view, the first quarter 5% of goods import and export growth rate hit a record high in six quarters, the total history of the same period for the first time exceeded 10 trillion yuan, and showed changes in the structure to the better, highlighting the resilience of the Chinese economy.
In the first quarter, the value-added of high-tech manufacturing industries above designated size increased by 7.5% year-on-year, accelerated by 2.6 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter of last year; the value-added of the service industry increased by 5%, and its share of the GDP increased to 59%; the contribution rate of domestic demand to the economic growth reached 85.5%; the energy consumption of the unit of GDP declined by 0.1% year-on-year; the national per capita disposable income income increased by 6.2% year-on-year, and per capita service consumption expenditure increased by 12.7% ......
"The economic operation in the first quarter showed a development trend of faster growth, better structure and better quality and efficiency." Li Hui said that the economic scale of the first quarter accounted for the annual economic total of about 22%. A year's plan is in the spring, a good start to complete a good year of economic and social development goals and tasks is of great significance.
With the stability and coordination of economic operation enhanced, the confidence of the main business continued to rebound. You Hongtao introduction, the first quarter, the company's performance over the same period last year, an increase of more than 25%. From the perspective of future development, the domestic demand for health is still continuing to grow, the future market is very confident.
Looking globally, world economic growth is still under considerable pressure. The World Bank expects the global economy to grow by 2.41 TP3T this year, and the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest upward revision of global growth is expected to be 3.21 TP3T.
Facing up to the challenges, the foundation for rebound and upturn still needs to be consolidated.
The good start has boosted confidence in development, laying a better foundation for the realization of the annual goals and tasks. However, we should also see that the current effective demand is insufficient, social expectations are weak and other problems still exist, and the basis for a sustained recovery needs to be further consolidated.
Consumption is the main engine driving economic growth. In the first quarter, the growth rate of 4.7% in total retail sales of consumer goods slowed down compared with the growth rate of 5.5% in the previous two months and 7.2% for the whole of last year. At the same time, price increases have fallen, with the CPI rising 0.1% year-on-year in March, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that consumer confidence has yet to be further strengthened.
Wang Guanhua suggested that the promotion of consumption from post-epidemic recovery to sustained expansion, we should focus on three aspects: continue to expand employment, promote residents to increase income, enhance the ability of residents to consume; innovative consumption scenarios, increase the supply of high-quality goods and services, enhance the willingness of residents to consume; improve the business circulation system, create a good consumer environment, so that residents can rest assured that comfortable consumption.
Financing is difficult, expensive financing is a lot of private enterprises have long been facing problems. In this regard, you Hongtao also know, he said the pharmaceutical industry, research and development needs a lot of capital investment, financing difficulties and other issues to the development of enterprises to bring challenges.
"Solving the difficult and expensive financing problems requires the cooperation of policies in all aspects." Li Hui said, for example, in promoting scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation process, in addition to the implementation of tax cuts, the People's Bank of China not long ago set up the policy tool of refinancing, which reflects the combined effect of fiscal and monetary policies.
China is still at a critical stage of economic transformation and upgrading. "The transformation and upgrading of enterprises is bound to suffer some pain." You Hongtao said that Hwaseng Pharmaceutical has always been determined to seek innovation, constantly increasing investment in research and development, and focusing on opening up a new track in the big health industry, such as special medical use formulas, to cultivate new advantages in development.
Currently, the issue of how the policy can be effectively implemented is also of great concern.
Activating the Potential Long-term Improvement is Supported and Confident
In 2024, China has set an expected target of around 51 TP3T of economic growth for the year.
Looking ahead to the future development of China's economy, Zhang Yansheng believes that the short term to solve the problem of insufficient demand, the medium term to speed up the structural adjustment of the economy, do a good job of risk prevention and mitigation work and stabilize the development of the real estate industry, and in the long term to accelerate the development of new quality productivity to promote the economy towards high-quality development.
Expanding domestic demand, a series of initiatives are in force. This year, the National Development and Reform Commission to speed up the central budget investment plan, so far has reached more than 200 billion yuan, accounting for the proportion of the year more than 30%, and has completed the preliminary screening of local government special bond projects.
Following the "promotion of large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in action program" issued after the Ministry of Commerce and other 14 departments issued by the "promotion of consumer goods trade-in action program" has been released to the public, put forward to increase the fiscal and financial policy support, such as 22 measures and initiatives, is expected to pry trillions of dollars of market space.
"We are establishing a better working mechanism to strengthen sectoral linkage and central-local interaction." At the same time, Li Hui said, we are striving to incorporate equipment renewal and some recycling projects into the scope of support from various types of government funds, such as investment within the central budget, and optimize the implementation of tax incentives to promote the policy of equipment and consumer goods renewal and upgrading.
In the first quarter of this year, consumption is still the ballast for the stable operation of the economy, from the holiday economy to the spring economy, various scenarios of consumption continue to innovate.
Wang Guanhua believes that this has bred a lot of new economic growth points, and also brings a lot of space for expanding consumption potential. "The market is the most scarce resource, China has a super-sized domestic demand market of more than 1.4 billion people, with large consumption potential and strong resilience, which is where our strengths lie, as well as where confidence and backbone lie."
"An enterprise must insist on innovation for long-term development. The country's drive to cultivate new quality productivity has brought many new opportunities for our enterprises to develop." You Hongtao said that for enterprises, the confidence in future development lies in the future of China's booming economy and in the country's huge market potential.
Talking about the future economic trends, Li Hui said, we have the development of new quality productivity opportunities for industrial upgrading, there is a more solid foundation for high-quality development, there is a further comprehensive deepening of reform and opening up to stimulate the power of the vitality of the policy to deal with domestic and foreign risks and challenges and work to prepare, with the further implementation of the policy initiatives, the whole year, the economy steady to better with a solid foundation.
China's economy has never grown and prospered in the midst of storms. "Observing the economic operation is still to observe the general situation, see the trend and recognize the mainstream." Wang Guanhua said that there are pressures and challenges in the economic operation, but there is also support and confidence, and the basic trend of economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed.
